Welcome to IPC's Industry Intelligence Insights newsletter!

Each month, we plan to bring you all of IPC's latest research in one place. This newsletter recaps our recent releases, highlights what's coming up, and offers insights on the current market environment. Feel free to share this with your colleagues — we welcome your questions and comments. 

As we near the end of 2024, the global economy has shown remarkable resilience, especially in the United States. Fed Chair Jay Powell recently described the U.S. economy's performance as "remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world." Back in mid-2023, we projected just 0.7% growth for the U.S. in 2024. Recession seemed certain. Instead, the U.S. economy is on track to grow by about 2.7%, far surpassing expectations. 

Despite the positive global outlook, growth has not been evenly distributed. Europe grew just 0.7% in 2024 and is projected to see just under 1% growth in 2025. China faced significant headwinds this year, responding with historic stimulus measures, while other parts of Asia, such as India, benefited from these dynamics and will likely continue to do so. 

While economic strength has reduced the risk of a recession, uncertainties remain. The conflicts in Europe and the Middle East continue, and it's unclear if or when they will reach peaceful resolutions. Inflation might not be slowing as quickly as many hope, which could slow rate cuts and keep borrowing costs higher for longer. Furthermore, over 100 countries, representing nearly half the global population, held national elections in 2024. The impact of these elections remains to be seen, but policy shifts could affect the electronics industry. In the United States, the incoming administration has indicated plans to raise tariffs on imports early in 2025 — a policy that could significantly affect the electronics industry. The electronics industry relies on one of the most globally diverse supply chains of any industry and tariffs have a bad habit of been contagious. 

The specifics of the tariffs — their timing and coverage — are still unknown, as are their potential impacts. The upcoming IPC Sentiment Index report will feature a special question we asked recently on how manufacturers and suppliers plan to navigate these potential tariffs so look for that research in the coming weeks. Other research by economists such as Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, and Amit Khandelwal has shown that American importers and consumers bore much of the cost of tariffs implemented during President Trump's first term. Similarly, a study by Feng et al. (2023) found that Chinese importers shouldered about two-thirds of retaliatory tariffs, highlighting an asymmetric impact between the two countries. We will be closely watching trade developments, and we know many of you will be as well. 

To conclude, I’m excited to introduce Thiago Guimarães as IPC’s new Director of Industry Intelligence. Thiago brings over a decade of experience in B2B market research, with a focus on industrial manufacturing, gaming, and consumer technology. Going forward, Thiago will be the owner of this newsletter, ensuring it continues to deliver valuable insights and keeps you informed about key trends shaping our industry. As part of this newsletter, I will continue to provide a market analysis blurb, keeping you updated on the latest economic and industry developments. Please join me in welcoming Thiago to the team!

Thank you for staying informed with us. We look forward to navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead together.